The National Party lies.
It’s been a corner stone of their campaign and now, the Advertising Standards Authority has upheld that with a finding that partially agrees that comments they made in paid media about a CGT impacting Kiwisaver and Businesses was a falsehood - so National’s response was to lie about that even more and claim the ASA found a CGT will impact businesses.
That’s not what they found.
It’s not even in the remit of what the ASA can do - they’re there to look at claims being made in advertising, not to define what the CGT will impact.
What the actual finding said was that Labour, on their website on CGT mentions the complicated process of a CGT on commercial properties that are sold separately to a business allowed for an acceptable level of hyperbole or puffery (that’s the description the ASA uses) and because it’s more complicated than the residential CGT plan it could be read as impacting businesses which they deemed as National’s opinion. Not that it is fact.
And those who have been paying attention know the National Campaign has been full of, well let’s charitably call it hyperbole - the million new taxes claim for example. Or claims like their tough on crime stance lowered ram raid numbers - which went down before they were elected due to a range of factors including Labour’s plan to install fog canons and bollards.
Some media is finally picking up on it and now debunking claims from across the coalition- which is great to see. Paula Penfold did an in-depth point by point debunk on anti-abortion claims from Selwyn NZ First Candidate and VFF coordinator Elizabeth Mundt, Stuff photojournalist Robert Kitchin has been making great content pointing out misleading claims on Billboards and the rules around honesty in elections and RNZ is even doing the odd fact check on claims these days when not uncritically platforming an astroturf third party promoters partisan polls.
But a campaign run on Bullshit is a real problem - in part because it leads to the events of a Wellington North Meet the Candidates event that saw Ayesha Verrall attacked by covid conspiracy theorists over our world leading response to the pandemic.
There’s a mountain of data garnered from across fields like political science, communication studies, criminology and psychology that shows that disinformation from the right wing political sphere leads to more violence aimed at elected officials than from the left. But it’s not a direct switch - it’s a catalyst, an enabler that lowers the threshold for violence by altering how those impacted perceive threats and dehumanises targets.
So when Paul Henry stands in a pub made famous because the owners burned Jacinda Ardern’s book, under a confederate flag and says the Greens aren’t people - that feeds into the mess - but he was just being honest according to media, what a larrikin, typical Paul Henry.
Research published in journals like Nature Human Behaviour and The HKS Misinformation Review highlights how targeted election lies reshape social identity dynamics. When right-wing election disinformation frames an opponent not just as a political rival, but as an "existential threat," "traitor," or part of a fraudulent cabal, it creates a zero-sum framing. Academic literature demonstrates that when individuals genuinely believe an election or nation is being stolen, extra-legal action and political violence become psychologically justified in their minds as acts of self defence.
And sadly there is a pipeline of conspiracy to violence that data shows us that people who fall down conspiracy rabbit holes are much more susceptible to engage in physical intimidation or violence towards political figures and election workers that has been seen in other countries - the US being the most well known example.
And this is a Coalition that, on many fronts, has worked to appeal to those people susceptible to conspiracy theories.
NZ First is the most obvious - the party itself re-entered Parliament in part because of that walk Winston did through the Parliament grounds occupation. Since then, Voices for Freedom has targeted the party as part of an infiltration process which now sees candidates with direct links to VFF running - people like Mundt in Selwyn, Nicola Laboyrie in hamilton, Vince Cocurullo in Whangarei and more all have verifiable connections to the disinformation organisation.
Act has supported and partnered with Groundswell on agricultural policy and emissions trading policies and there’s notable overlap between Groundswell and VFF. And Seymour snuck off during the Parliament occupation to meet with protest leaders despite parliament wide agreement not to engage with them. This was the party that most often criticised research into disinformation - especially when the Disinformation Project called out David Seymour for comments that could inadvertently trigger online harassment from the crowd.
And as part of their election campaign, National has already pushed disinformation around the findings of the second covid inquiry over the Covid era loan, and has since used a dog whistle on this topic, claiming the $9 Billion paid to deal with Crown debt was all because of Labour’s Covid era spending - which they supported and wanted to go further on at the time. They too worked with Groundswell and appropriated language from these groups as part of its campaign in 2023.
Sadly this isn’t new, in research done by Victoria University, they found the now Coalition had the most mistruths and misleading statements in their 2023 campaigns, outside of those parties captured by conspiracy theorists.
And sadly we can probably expect more vocal incidents at events like we saw in Wellington North - because the person livestreaming the event, there supporting Barry Young, a hero of the conspiracy movement for stealing data while in an IT role with Te Whatu Ora, was John Ansell - infamous for his creation of National’s iwi/kiwi campaign under Brash, and he openly called for more of this disruption at other events on that stream. Disinformation researcher Dr Sanjana Hattotuwa’s research into the incident found the action was highly coordinated and designed for viral replication. Young described the event as fun afterwards and comments from the conspiracy community found it inspirational according to Hattotuwa’s analysis.
And instead of decrying what happened, the Act and National candidates chose to make no comment on what happened.
So what can the public do about this? A fair bit according to research from the Journal of Democracy.
For a start, leaders of parties need to demand non-violence. At the time of writing, only the Labour and Greens Party leadership have decried the actions of the meeting. And while I wouldn’t expect the party that was involved, the Outdoors and Freedom party - who claim to be both advocates for nature and keen on open mining of DOC land - to decry actions like the ones they took part in while at the Wellington Occupation but on a smaller scale, surely others in Parliament or Opportunity should be in agreement that this sort of action is unacceptable.
Communities need to organise events with strict compliance rules around non-violence. This includes making sure that they control live streams or recordings so they can’t be hijacked or framed in a partisan or violent way. Pre-written questions only, nothing from an open floor, and don’t be afraid to have unruly candidates and their supporters removed for disruptions. And always emphasise the fact that people are there to listen, and while you may not agree with what is being said, everyone - candidates and the audience needs to be respectful to those around them. Some organisers may choose to not invite Parties that were involved in this to be safe but that would be a judgement call between keeping the public informed and the fact there is no guarantee of anyone being given a platform.
And on social media spaces, the public needs to decry calls for actions like this. Report posts calling for it to the platform or admin of the groups you see them in, and report it to organisers of local events that may be targeted as well so they can be aware and take precautionary steps.
Oh and don’t vote for Parties that choose to spread bullshit to win votes. In fact, pressing political candidates about the need for reform around integrity in campaigning is a strong way to try and drive longer term positive change.
We have long prided ourselves on our access to politicians. It’s an amazing part of our democratic systems and losing it because of the loud noise and actions of a few people is a real depressing concern. And the fact there is a clear pipeline from being lied to by the party leading the Coalition to the actions like those of these people and maybe more in the future, is something we should be fighting against - for us and future voters.
And we will wait for the very public apology from National - Not! They always lie like flat fish.